Harris leads Trump overall but not on handling of the economy: POLL (Page 6 ) | August 19, 2024

Vote groups

Some of the changes among groups from Biden to Harris are striking. Among them:

• Independents went from +4 points for Trump in July to +11 Harris now, a 15-point swing. Classic swing voters, independents have gone with the winner in nine of the last 12 presidential elections, all but those in 2012, 2004 and 1976.
• People younger than age 40 have moved from +2 Biden in July to +20 for Harris now, an 18-point swing.
• Women age 18-29 split about evenly (Trump +2) in July; now they favor Harris by 23 points, a 25-point swing in this group. It’s almost as big, an 18-point swing to Harris, among women age 30 to 49. Harris also has improved from Biden’s score among men age 18-29, from Biden +1 in July to Harris +14 now, a 13-point swing.
• Support from Black people has swung by 12 points in Harris’ direction, from +60 for Biden in July to +72 for Harris now. Her gain is about equal among Black men and Black women alike. (Harris is a Black and South Asian person. The sample size of Asians in this survey is too small for a vote-preference estimate, but a combination of the last two surveys with a Harris-Trump matchup, the first done before Biden withdrew, finds Harris ahead of Trump among Asians by 65%-32%.)
• Harris has seen an 8-point swing among Hispanic people. That’s occurred mostly among Hispanic women, a 17-point swing from +2 for Trump in July to +15 for Harris now.
• In the middle-income range, people with household incomes from $50,000 to $99,999 have gone from Trump +7 in July to Harris +8 now, a 15-point shift.

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