Silver’s update followed a Sunday New York Times/Siena College poll, which showed Trump ahead of Harris nationally by 1 point in a direct comparison and 2 points when including third-party candidates, undermining any post-Democratic National Convention bump for Harris.
“This is one of our highest-rated pollsters, so it has a fair amount of influence on the numbers, reducing Harris’ lead in our national polling average to 2.5 points, which would put her in dangerous territory in the Electoral College,” Silver wrote on his Silver Bulletin blog before his Monday update.
“Our model is more bearish on Harris still because of its convention bounce adjustment and its assessment of economic ‘fundamentals.'”
Silver’s modeling to project the Electoral College winner involves more than a simple comparison of numbers, incorporating data points beyond polling.
CONTINUE READING ON THE NEXT PAGE Advertisement:
Granny Cake
Salad dressing in stock, quick and long-lasting
This Broccoli Soup is Like Medicine for My Stomach
Gas cylinder, with this tip it lasts you 4 months longer: stop spending money
Most do this wrong. 10 items you’re flushing that destroy your plumbing
The Best Butter Pound Cake Recipe !
This recipe is absolutely fantastic! It tastes even better the next day… if you have the patience to wait!
I Won’t Give Up My Inheritance Just Because I Wasn’t the “Perfect Daughter”
10 Things to Know Before Eating Okra
