A recent political survey explored a legally impossible but politically captivating scenario: a head-to-head presidential race in 2028 between former Presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump. While both men are disqualified from running due to the 22nd Amendment (which limits presidents to two terms), the results of the poll offer a revealing snapshot of current American political loyalties.
Poll Results: Obama Wins by a Significant Margin
A survey conducted by the Daily Mail and J.L. Partners asked 1,013 registered voters who they would vote for if the 2028 presidential election were between Donald Trump and Barack Obama.
The results showed a clear preference for the former two-term Democrat:
| Candidate | Percentage of Vote |
| Barack Obama | 52% |
| Donald Trump | 41% |
| Undecided / Declined | 7% |
Obama secured an 11-point lead over Trump in this hypothetical matchup.
Strength Among Key Democratic and Swing Voters
Obama’s hypothetical victory was fueled by overwhelming support from core Democratic constituencies and a strong performance among independent voters:
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Hispanic Voters: Obama dominated with 73% support.
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Black Voters: Obama also secured strong backing, with 68% siding with the former president.
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Independent Voters: Crucially, Obama held a 10-point lead among independents, who are considered the key swing voters in any general election.
This data point is particularly telling, as the poll found that Obama was the only major Democratic figure tested who actually beat Trump in this hypothetical setting. When voters were asked to choose between Trump and other top Democrats—including Hillary Clinton, Kamala Harris, and Joe Biden—Trump came out ahead. This suggests that for many Americans, Obama remains the figure of broadest, most genuine appeal within the Democratic Party.
The Constitutional Reality: Why This Race Cannot Happen
The speculation, though politically engaging, is legally moot. The 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution strictly limits any person to two elected terms as President.
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Barack Obama completed two full terms (2009–2017) and is therefore ineligible to run again.
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Donald Trump served one term (2017–2021) and was returned to office for a second term in 2024. Upon completion of this current term, he will have reached the two-term limit, regardless of whether those terms were consecutive.
Changing this constitutional restriction would require a monumental effort: a two-thirds vote in both the House and Senate, followed by ratification by 38 state legislatures. In today’s deeply fractured political climate, such a feat is considered virtually impossible.
Despite the legal certainty, both men continue to fuel the chatter: Trump thrives on pushing boundaries by teasing about “legal loopholes” and running for a “third term,” while Obama’s continued popularity and carefully managed public profile ensure his name remains relevant in political conversations. This hypothetical matchup serves as a profound reminder that the political battle between their contrasting legacies—one built on inclusive optimism, the other on populist grievance—never truly ended.
